Best Bets for UFC 219: Weekly Wagering Deep Dive
UFC 219 is set to take place this Saturday night (Dec. 30) in Las Vegas, Nevada, and let’s just say that it doesn’t scream”caliber” like preceding end-of-year UFC cards.
The UFC stacks its card of the year in the top to base. Instead, in 2017, we now get a main event between Holly Holm and Cris Cyborg. Though it has the capability to be a fantastic fight, it does not necessarily scream”purchase this pay-per-view!”
This is also an extremely hard card to bet on as there aren’t a lot of fights which you can get a strong read on. Many of the favorites, such as Cyborg and Khabib Nurmagomedov, deserve to become overwhelming favorites, yet could also easily get merked by their opponents. Danger lurks.
Nevertheless, we need to generate a few plays. So let us do the best we can to find a few golden underdogs, a few worthy props, and a lucrative parlay. Also checking out my Best Bets for UFC Futures from a week, in which I suggested a couple of’puppies (Carla Esparza and Neil Magny) who hold some value.
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori (-222) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+187)
At first glance, this moneyline at BetOnline seems perfectly acceptable, but if you take a closer look at this preliminary matchup, it is possible to get some solid reasons to take the puppy in Omari”The Wolverine” Akhmedov (17-4).
Although Marvin Vettori (12-3) is a larger fighter that loves to throw down, averaging 3.13 significant strikes landed per moment, he does not possess enough power to take Akhmedov out via (T)KO, therefore this fight might wind up being a grappling affair. While Akhmedov has revealed previously that he has some power in his hands (seven wins by knockout and two”Battle of the Night” bonuses in the UFC), where he really shines is in the wrestling department. The Dagestani grappler could easily end up controlling the fight if the bulk is spent in the clinch or on the mat.
The kryptonite that I see for Akhmedov is that his gasoline tank. Can he hit a cardio wall just like he did in consecutive knockout losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski? In both of those declines, Akhmedov started strong but faded badly in the later rounds.
He followed those declines with two hard-working decision wins over Kyle Noke and Abdul Razak Alhassan, the latter an upset at UFC Fight Night 109. Right now I am leaning towards”The Wolverine’s” hard hands and wrestling acumen for another potentially rewarding upset.
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